Monday, March 13, 2006

Regression to the Mean

My results appear to be in the mode of regressing to the mean. In other words I've been losing and my overall results will, I suppose, more correctly reflect the way things really are. Since I've been here this trip I've played 42 hours and would have made more working at McDonalds if you look at just pure poker results. Purely based on results of play I'm under one big bet per hour which I find disappointing but not surprising. I'm really NOT that good I'm learning. Still I AM ahead of the game. I'm just not really beating it much. If you figure in comps and the jackpot (and I didn't even try to add in anything for the lower hotel rate) then I'm up to about $25 an hour, a bit over three big bets per hour. Those results though do not adequately express my skill level but rather show that if I really want to make money at this I damn well better find someway to just get really lucky.

Still I suppose there is hope. Overally I feel my game has improved. Right now I feel it's sliding back. I played  very poorly last night. I also did not get out of a game that I knew I should  have. Actually there was jsut one player I kept trying to play with and he kept beating me. I've got to get over this kind of macho bull...crap that I seem to get in my mind where I beat my head on a wall I know I can't batter down that way. He was outplaying me I could see that. Why did I think I could change it then? In time I may learn to or maybe I just needed to be  patient and wait for better cards, better opportunities. What I should not have done was  to keep doing what I was doing and donk off chips. At least I had the good sense to just stop when I got near $100 down and walk  away. In truth I did not lose THAT many to him but the game didn't feel good, I should have left. I don't know if he knows how good he is but he got me good. He is very friendly and kinda makes  you want to stay. He plays a tough but loose game and I guess I thought because he was loose I could beat him. Maybe I could with good play, good hand selection and good cards. Instead I choose to play a bit too loose myself instead  of  tightening up. I then played those too loose hands poorly. I was also just not hitting, not all day really except for a few instances. All in all I was a donk. The only good thing I suppose is that I know I was and MAYBE, just maybe I learned something. If so it's very possible that it was worth the loss there rather than a larger loss down the line possible. Time will tell.

No comments: