Regression to the Mean

My results appear to be in the mode of regressing to the mean. In other words I've been losing and my overall results will, I suppose, more correctly reflect the way things really are. Since I've been here this trip I've played 42 hours and would have made more working at McDonalds if you look at just pure poker results. Purely based on results of play I'm under one big bet per hour which I find disappointing but not surprising. I'm really NOT that good I'm learning. Still I AM ahead of the game. I'm just not really beating it much. If you figure in comps and the jackpot (and I didn't even try to add in anything for the lower hotel rate) then I'm up to about $25 an hour, a bit over three big bets per hour. Those results though do not adequately express my skill level but rather show that if I really want to make money at this I damn well better find someway to just get really lucky.

Still I suppose there is hope. Overally I feel my game has improved. Right now I feel it's sliding back. I played  very poorly last night. I also did not get out of a game that I knew I should  have. Actually there was jsut one player I kept trying to play with and he kept beating me. I've got to get over this kind of macho bull...crap that I seem to get in my mind where I beat my head on a wall I know I can't batter down that way. He was outplaying me I could see that. Why did I think I could change it then? In time I may learn to or maybe I just needed to be  patient and wait for better cards, better opportunities. What I should not have done was  to keep doing what I was doing and donk off chips. At least I had the good sense to just stop when I got near $100 down and walk  away. In truth I did not lose THAT many to him but the game didn't feel good, I should have left. I don't know if he knows how good he is but he got me good. He is very friendly and kinda makes  you want to stay. He plays a tough but loose game and I guess I thought because he was loose I could beat him. Maybe I could with good play, good hand selection and good cards. Instead I choose to play a bit too loose myself instead  of  tightening up. I then played those too loose hands poorly. I was also just not hitting, not all day really except for a few instances. All in all I was a donk. The only good thing I suppose is that I know I was and MAYBE, just maybe I learned something. If so it's very possible that it was worth the loss there rather than a larger loss down the line possible. Time will tell.

Is this normal?

My trip to Tunica in January was, in my view at the time, a near disaster. Looking back it actually was not THAT bad. I didn't come away a winner but I didn't ding my bankroll that badly at all.

This trip is the mirror image of that one. I've had down sessions but more up sessions. I'm up a bit over $500 purely on Hold'em winnings. Then there is the fact that the bad beat jackpot hit yesterday while I was at the table and that netted me another $750 after taxes and tips.

I guess it's normal for it to be hot and cold. I know I didn't play nearly as well in January as I could have but I didn't play that badly either. I was getting sucked out on a lot which I realize is going to happen in such a low limit game as 4/8 where people just want to play every hand and have fun.

This is going to take a lot of mental adjustment for me because while I like the upswings I get far too down about the downswings. I need to learn to have faith in what I'm doing. That's never been my strong suit. Maybe poker will be the thing that will somehow help me develop some confidence in my abilities. I hope that is the case and I hope it spreads to other facets of my life.

I may post some more detailed info on the games I've played but for now if you want to read more about the trip go to my main journal. You can find the link to My Journey in the sidebar.

One more time

As of tomorrow morning I'm off to Tunica one more time. I'm actually going in a relatively positive frame of mind. I've had a good dose of reality so some of my previous hopes and dreams are a bit toned down, or at least not really expected to happen anytime soon. I do think I can go this time and have a fun and possibly even profitable time.

The apartment thing is on hold for a couple of reasons. First is that I have tons of stuff to do to get the other house ready for when Connie and I move into it and I don't think I can take the time to spend two weeks out of every month in Tunica. I don't need to yet, we don't need the money. Even if I did show a profit it would not be enough to change things now. That will be different if we're living there anyway and living on Connie's (then) teaching salary which will be around a third or less what she makes now. That's three to four years down the road now and I'm not ready for the stress of feeling I have to make money playing. It was messing me up emotionally and it was stupid thinking the way I was because I have three to four more years to get better and let things settle out. Who knows where poker will go in that time.

Another reason not to bother with an apartment now is that I can get rooms at the Grand for $35 weekdays and $45 weekends and for two weeks that adds up to less than rent and utilities and such would be. True I give up some convenience but it's well worth it in terms of flexibility and less hassle.

I'm thinking I can work in one more trip before our cruise that is planned for May 27th in honor of Lee's high school graduation. If things go VERY well I may try to squeeze in two trips. For that to happen I'd have to place in the top three in a tourney there or make $500 or more over my expenses on this trip, or both. It's not likely to happen. I may not even PLAY any tourneys and I'll only be there for eight nights so I'd have to clear a bit over $100 a day to make $500 over expenses. It's not impossible but the way things have been going it's not likely. I'll be VERY happy to make enough to break even for the trip.

I did, FINALLY, cash in a tournament last night. It was only a tiny little 45 seat sit and go but I placed 2nd, felt like I played well and felt like some luck had come back. Actually I don't feel like I've been playing all that poorly either in NL tournaments orin limit cash games. I have identified some problems but for the most part I've been doing the right thing and just getting beat. There are times when I can really relate to Phill Hellmuth's much ridiculed statement "If it wasn't for luck I'd win every one." I'm sure knows that no matter how good you are there IS luck involved. Lord knows I know that now after having it hammered into my head over and over again. By the way I'm in no way comparing myself to Phil. He may be a bit annoying to watch but I'd still love to have his skills. Probably I'll never come close but I'll keep trying, in between temper tantrums of my own I'm afraid. I realize that they are unproductive in so many ways though and I"m really trying to eliminate them. It will be an ongoing battle, wish me well.

I'll post the good, the bad and the ugly from Tunica. I'm not sure how regularly but I'll do what I can.

last year...

As an addendum to the previous entry...

Last year I played 137 tournaments of various buy ins. I was in the money 32 times for a very nice profit. One in five is about what I kind of expect, I can definately live with that.

Books...I love books but am questioning the value of most poker books. I've read all the most recommended ones. Maybe I didn't read them good enough. I'm not giving up on them but...

One problem seems to be that most people have NOT read them. They play nothing like the books would lead you to expect or say is correct. I don't know how those people do long term but I know that they beat me pretty consistently in the short term.

Are poker books for real? Can they really help? Are they a scam? I'm talking here about some of the most recommended ones..."Harrington on Hold'em", "Winning Low Limit Poker" by Lee Jones, "Supersystem", "Theory of Poker" by Sklansky...and many others. They are a mint for their writers no doubt and I honestly feel that they MAY have helped me.

I have no doubt I am a better player than I would be without them...but can they make me good enough to actually be GOOD? This is what makes me wonder if I have what it takes. Am I alone here?

Oh...and yes I realize that my 2005 results added into my 2006 results so far are still in the 1 in 5 range...so maybe I'm just panicking early but 1 for 17 just sucks. So far the hardest part of poker for me is the emotional side which really should not be a surprise now that I think about it....

17-1

That last entry about good news was maybe a tad premature. It WAS no doubt good news but it's about the only good news. I've played 17 tournaments thus far in 2006 and have been in the money one time...one. Can anybody's luck be that bad? Sounds like a skills problem to me...or lack thereof....sigh...

Finally some GOOD news

Ok so it was only a $1 SnG... I just wanted to play and the way things are going was frankly afraid to play for REAL money. Anyway I hung on to win this one. At one point I was down under 10X the big blind and had to push all in I don't know how many times but fate finally shined on me and I actually won the sucker. I put a couple of horrible beats on people but I figure I'm owed a couple...hundred.

It wasn't much but just to finally win SOMETHING was much needed. I may well stick with these little $1 SnG's both single and mult-table until I get a little confidence back. They are probably decent practice for my no-limit game. Even if the competition is hardly the best, it seems to be better than it used to be at this level. At least I finally felt like I had some clue what I was doing. I did not play as well as I'd have liked, I was a bit hesitant and probably a bit timid even but I bit the bullet and got aggressive when I needed to and this time it worked.

Just thought anybody who reads this journal might like to see some good news for once (this one's for you Robin and Connie since far as I know you are my entire readership at the moment).

Wednesday Evening

I thought that maybe instead of dropping down in cash games maybe I'd do better against better players in slightly larger players, thought maybe I'd get sucked out on less. Boy did that not work. Played a $3/$6 game...there went another $68. I'm getting to the point where, while I WANT to play, I'm almost afraid to. I actually dread getting good hands because I just know they will get sucked out on by the river...and they do usually. I wish to hell I knew somebody that could tell me for sure if I can actually play or if I should just take up knitting. Since I know no one who can tell me and I'm not likely to meet anybody I guess it may be time to just give up since my results seem to prove I cannot really play. Another dream shot all to hell I guess...